New Trade SPY

SPY is trading back up into the middle of a confluence of resistance.( As seen on the chart Chart is from this AM), a previous pivot low from 4/10 is at 135.76. There is a gap fill at 136.32 from last Friday 7/20. We are backtesting the lower trendline from a rising wedge of the last 2 months, and also backtesting a trendline going back to the highs in April, and the 100 day MA is at 136.05. Todays play is to buy the SPY Aug18 136(Monthly) puts. Risk for this trade is 1% of equity. Stop should be placed above Fridays highs at 137.17 Long 14 Aug 136 puts 1.75

Hi Ho Silverrrrrr!

Hi Ho Silverrrrrr!

Was that Mario Draghi or the Lone Ranger coming to the rescue this morning? So when all else fails print, spend, and do it again. Despite diminishing returns from central bank interventions, it looks like that’s what we will get. At some point the inflationary aspects of all this will rear its ugly head again and looking at the charts we may be nearing that inflection point. With many of my compadre’s looking at Gold, I'm inclined to look at the little guy Silver or at least SLV. On the chart you can see the downtrend line that has been intact since Feb - Mar. You also can see that it cracked yesterday after putting in a higher low earlier this month.

SLV has also not had more than 2 consecutive months with higher highs since April of 2011.

With that in mind an October spread would give us the time for this trade to work out. The play here is to buy 2 SLV Oct 27 calls and sell 1 Oct 26 call. Total debit should be around $1. Let’s say that prices for the spread are 26 Call 2.00 and 27 calls 1.50.  Maximum risk at expiration would be at the long strike of 27 where the 27 calls would be worthless, a S300 loss (1.50 x 2) and the 26 call would be worth $1, a $100 profit (Short 1 call at 2.00). So maximum risk is $200 per spread. Break even is 29.00 and the spread is profitable at the rate of $100 per point over 29 per spread. As usual risk is best contained by using 1% of equity for this trade.

Disclaimer Disclaimer This is not investment advice. Raymond (Randy) Reis is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this website or Twitter be used or interpreted as a recommendation for any investment or trading approach to the markets. Trading and investing can be hazardous to your wealth. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. Mr. Reis may have numerous positions within the market at any given time that are not disclosed of at the time of publication. All opinions expressed by Mr. Reis are subject to change without notice, and you should always obtain current information and perform the appropriate due diligence before making any investment or trading decision. All efforts are made to ensure that the information contained within the site is factual and accurate - however, Mr. Reis does not guarantee its accuracy under any circumstances. Mr. Reis has chosen to disclose the vast majority of his positions in the market to qualify his research. While he strives to maintain as objective as possible, the fact that he is also an active participant will inevitably influence his perspective.

Important Levels for SPY & AAPL for 7/26

*78% Fib  retrace	138.55		*78% Fib retrace	618.78
R4	137.85		R4	607.66
R3	136.54		*62% Fib retrace	599.94
*62% Fib retrace	136.31		20 Day MA	599.21
100 Day MA	136.05		R3	596.86
Tenken-Sen	135.61		Kijun-Sen	592.74
20 Day MA	135.37		Tenken-Sen	592.67
R2	135.23		50% Fib retrace	586.33
R1	134.60		Cloud Top	586.33
Yest Hi	134.56		R2	586.06
Kijun-Sen	134.51		100 Day MA	584.51
*50% Fib retrace	134.50		Yest Hi	580.80
Cloud Top	134.40		50 Day MA	580.56
Yest Close	133.96		R1	580.51
Pivot	133.92		Pivot	575.26
50 Day MA	133.47		Yest Close	574.97
S1	133.29		Yest Low	570.00
Yest Low	133.25		S1	569.71
S2	132.61		Cloud Bottom	567.79
Cloud Bottom	132.17		S2	564.46
200 Day MA	131.78		S3	553.66
S3	131.30		S4	542.86
S4	129.99		200 Day MA	504.48
S4	129.58		200 Day MA	497.72
* Of decline from  142.21 - 127.14			* Of decline  from  644.00 - 528.66
4/2/12 - 6/4/12			4/10/12 - 5/18/12

PNRA follow up

At this point best path is to sit tight and do nothing.

PNRA trade follow up

Sometimes you eat the bread, sometimes the bread eats you!

PNRA reported positive earnings last nite and the stock responded with an after hours move of + 8%. This morning it is trading 152ish. Clearly Panera is eating CMG's lunch. This effectively negates our butterfly finishing in the money barring a European disaster over the next three trading days. We will take a look at trade repair after the opening though there likely won't be much to do without initiating new risk. This looks to be just a trade that didn't work. And is a prime example of why trading is not just about picking direction correctly. Money management is imperative. Risking 1% of equity on an idea allows us to be dead wrong and not blow up the house. We could be wrong on 6 of these trades (6.5/1 risk reward)befoe we are right and still be ahead of the game. Of course, we are aimimg for better than 50% which will provide a nice total return on the portfolio. 
I'll check back in around 10AM with any thoughts.

Important Levels for SPY & AAPL for 7/25

R4	140.73		R4	636.55
*78% Fib  retrace	138.55		R3	625.38
R3	138.51		*78% Fib retrace	618.78
*62% Fib retrace	136.31		R2	614.21
R2	136.29		Yest Hi	609.68
100 Day MA	136.08		R1	607.56
Tenken-Sen	135.39		Pivot	603.04
20 Day MA	135.27		Tenken-Sen	601.53
Yest Hi	135.25		Yest Close	600.92
R1	135.11		*62% Fib retrace	599.94
Kijun-Sen	134.51		20 Day MA	599.07
*50% Fib retrace	134.50		Yest Low	598.51
Cloud Top	134.40		S1	596.39
Pivot	134.07		Kijun-Sen	592.74
Yest Close	133.93		S2	591.87
50 Day MA	133.47		50% Fib retrace	586.33
Yest Low	133.03		Cloud Top	586.33
S1	132.89		100 Day MA	584.51
Cloud Bottom	132.20		S3	580.70
S2	131.85		50 Day MA	580.22
200 Day MA	131.68		S4	569.53
S3	129.63		Cloud Bottom	567.83
S4	127.41		200 Day MA	503.45
S4	129.58		200 Day MA	497.72
* Of decline from  142.21 - 127.14			* Of decline  from  644.00 - 528.66
4/2/12 - 6/4/12			4/10/12 - 5/18/12

AAPL 620/640/660 Call fly trade update (closed 1/2 + 80%)

I sold 1/2 of the 620/640/660 purchased on 7/19 http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3181465319709020120#editor/target=post;postID=1043273354810584610   call fly today for 3.40 a profit of 1.51 or 80%. Leaving 1/2 on for earnings.